Spring has arrived, but this year it brings a cooling market rather than a rush of competition — and an RBA decision that’s genuinely up for grabs. With fresh Cotality HVI data now released, here’s the clearest read on where rates and prices are heading this September.
The RBA’s September Call: Still Uncertain
The Reserve Bank meets on Tuesday 29 September, and the major banks remain split.
The cash rate has held at 4.35% since August. July inflation eased slightly — headline CPI down to 3.5% — but trimmed mean inflation stayed stuck at 3.6%, keeping the Board cautious.
Cotality’s latest report reinforces the risk of a hike:
“The latest inflation data has added a further layer of downside risk… a growing number of economists now expect the RBA could lift the cash rate again in September or November.”
Money markets still price a three-in-four chance of a hold, but sentiment has shifted: September is live, and November remains firmly in play.
What Two Rate Rises Mean for Borrowers
On a $600,000 principal-and-interest loan over 30 years, two 0.25% increases (a total rise of 0.50%) would lift repayments by roughly $190–$200 per month, depending on the lender and the loan’s annual percentage rate (APR).
This is a guide only — every loan behaves differently depending on structure, fees and individual circumstances.
Cotality HVI: National Downturn Spreads, and Perth Isn’t Immune
Cotality’s September Home Value Index shows a clear national downturn:
- 93% of capital city suburbs recorded value falls over winter
- National home values fell 0.9% in August
- Values are now 3.6% below the March peak
As Tim Lawless notes:
“What started as a more concentrated easing across higher-value segments has now become a much more generalised softening.”
Perth’s Property Market: Quarterly Decline Deepens
Perth is no longer in the rapid upswing seen earlier in the year. The latest Cotality HVI shows the market has clearly shifted into a downturn, with the quarterly figures now the clearest signal of where things are heading:
- Values are down 3.2% over the quarter — the sharpest pullback of any period this cycle
- Home values fell 0.8% in August, after a brief 0.1% rise in July
- Perth is now 3.2% below its April 2026 peak
Demand has softened sharply:
“Brisbane, Perth, and Sydney have recorded the largest declines in transaction activity, with estimated sales volumes down more than 20% compared with a year ago.”
Listings are accumulating, selling times are lengthening, and buyers have more negotiating power than they did earlier in the year.
The annual picture
Zooming out, annual growth is still positive — Perth is up 15.6% over the past 12 months, the strongest of any capital, with a median dwelling value of $999,987. But that figure reflects the strength of the first half of the cycle more than where the market is now; on the numbers that matter for anyone buying or selling this spring, the trend is down.
- House rents up 8.1%, unit rents up 7.4% over the year
Perth’s downturn may be shallower than in the eastern states, supported by tight supply, strong migration and relative affordability — but the quarter-on-quarter trend is clearly downward, and buyers and sellers should plan around that rather than the annual headline.
Listings Rising, Buyers Slowing — A Shift in Market Psychology
Cotality reports:
- Capital city listings are 24% higher than a year ago
- New listings are 6% lower
- Homes are taking longer to sell
- Auction clearance rates remain below 50%
“Longer selling times, larger vendor discounting and persistently low auction clearance rates all point to a buyer’s market.”
Rental Market: Still Tight, Still Rising
Perth’s rental market remains one of the strongest in Australia:
- House rents up 8.1%
- Unit rents up 7.4%
- Rents up 56% over five years — largest increase of any capital
- Gross yields: 3.9% (houses), 5.0% (units)
What This Means for You
First home buyers
Market conditions have changed significantly over the past year. REIWA reports that the number of properties available for sale has more than doubled in the last 12 months, selling times have increased and prices have begun to soften. With more stock on the market and less competition than earlier in the year, first-home buyers may find they have greater choice and more room to negotiate than they did throughout the past year.
Affordability remains challenging due to elevated interest rates and tighter borrowing capacity, but the current slowdown means buyers don’t need to rush or compete as aggressively as they did during last year’s high-pressure conditions.
Owners with loans up for renewal
With the banks split on rate direction and the RBA signalling upside risk, this is a smart time to check whether your current lender is still competitive.
Investors
Perth’s combination of rising rents, tight vacancy rates and strong annual growth continues to support yields relative to the eastern states.
Talk to Fox Mortgages
Every borrowing situation is different, and headline forecasts don’t always translate directly to your circumstances. If you’d like a clear picture of how the September rate decision and Perth’s market conditions affect your position — whether you’re buying, refinancing or reviewing an existing loan — get in touch for an obligation-free chat.
Disclaimer
Repayment examples in this article are general in nature and based on a hypothetical $600,000 principal-and-interest loan over 30 years. Actual repayment changes depend on your lender, loan structure, fees and annual percentage rate (APR). This information is not financial or credit advice. For guidance tailored to your circumstances, please speak with a licensed credit adviser.
Sources: Cotality Home Value Index — September 2026 release (data to 31 August 2026); REIWA Perth Metro market insights (reiwa.com.au/the-wa-market/perth-metro), week ending 30 August 2026; RBA Cash Rate Target announcements.